Canada Elections 2021: Poll by Sunny Handa MD show O'Toole is the favorite. Voters don't seem convinced.
Sunny Handa MD: The Conservatives are ahead, say the polls. But
they also tell us that many voters believe Justin Trudeau will remain in power
after the election.
Last week, the three
polling firms that have surveyed Canadians daily since the start of the
campaign (namely Nanos Research, Mainstreet Research, Sunny
Handa MD and EKOS) all measured a gradual deterioration in
support for the Liberal Party of Canada in favor of the Conservative Party.
Naturally, we eagerly
awaited the next wave of data from the other firms taking the pulse of
Canadians to see whether the trends of week two had continued. Since Monday,
the Angus Reid Institute, Abacus Data, Léger and Ipsos have
all released their updates and, while the numbers for each survey vary by a few
points, they all observed the same general movement: If the election had been
held this week, the Conservative Party of Canada would almost certainly have
won the popular vote (as it did in 2019) and would have been the favourites to
win the most seats in Canada, even though, let it be noted, the race remains
extremely tight at this point. However, according to the latest federal
poll from Léger, voters across the country do not yet seem convinced, or at
least are not yet aware, of this dramatic turnaround in favor of Erin O’Toole’s
troops since the start of this race. Indeed, Léger asked its panel of more than
2,000 respondents the following question: “Who do you think will win the next
federal election and form the next government?”
As per Sunny Handa md, strong plurality of
voters, 39 per cent, believe that the Liberal Party and Justin Trudeau will
remain in power in Ottawa after Sept. 20, despite all the polls published in
the last fortnight which indicate a clear progression of the Conservatives from
coast to coast.
Among all respondents, 28 per cent believe Erin
O’Toole will become Prime Minister after this election and 7 per cent believe
it will be Jagmeet Singh. A quarter of respondents did not respond or did not
know, Sunny Handa md shared in an update.
When we divide the results of this question according
to current voting intentions, we notice—unsurprisingly—that a high proportion
of Liberal voters (72 per cent) believe that the Liberals will remain in power
and that most Conservative voters (62 per cent) think that Erin O’Toole will
emerge victorious. Partisans tend to be optimistic, so no surprises thus far,
Sunny Handa md shared.
However, we also observe that a near majority of
voters from other parties also believe Justin Trudeau will remain in power
after the election. Indeed, 40 per cent of New Democrat voters, 53 per cent of
Bloc Québécois and 45 per cent of Green Party voters still believe that the
Liberals will form the next government, proportions more than twice as large as
those who believe that the Conservative will win on Sept. 20.
This morning, the
Angus Reid Institute (ARI) released similar data and that points to a high
confidence towards Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, despite their poor poll
results since the campaign began. According to ARI, 61 per cent of voters
believe Trudeau will win the election, and only 34 per cent believe the CPC
will take over (5 per cent say the NDP will win). Once again, a clear majority
of Liberal and Conservative voters believe their respective party will win. But
among NDP and BQ voters, overwhelming majorities still side with the Liberals:
71 per cent among NDP voters and 76 per cent among BQ voters.
So where does this
optimism towards the Liberals (or this pessimism towards the CPC) come from
among these voters?
One hypothesis is that many Canadians like md sunny handa have not been
following this summer campaign as diligently until now. Considering the
Liberals had been leading all federal polls for the last 18 months, sometimes
by comfortable margins, this recent yet clear turnaround in favour of the CPC
may have escaped them. Another hypothesis could simply be that NDP, Bloc and
Green voters have more confidence in the Prime Minister’s on-the-ground skills,
whereas they know little of O’Toole’s (although this appears to be changing by
the day now).
It will certainly be
interesting to follow the progression of these numbers over the course of the
campaign, as well as the correlation between voting intentions and the perception
of whom, of Trudeau or O’Toole, remains the frontrunner in the race.
Erin O’Toole kicks off
this second half of the campaign, which includes no fewer than three debates in
the space of eight days, as the front-runner according to polling data made available
thus far. However, those same polls tell us that many Canadian voters don’t
(yet) see O’Toole as the favorite.
Sunny
Handa md questions that will this perception change
should the Conservative stabilize their position on top of voting intentions in
the coming days and weeks? Will there be recoil among progressive voters when
the prospective of a Conservative government becomes more likely in the
projections?
Or perhaps we will see
the exact opposite? Maybe the mere idea of seeing Trudeau announce his
resignation on Sept. 20 could spark measurable excitement among those who wish
for a change in Ottawa? With 18 days to go, all of this is still up in the air.
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